In late December 1943 Hyakutake and the other senior Japanese officers on Bougainville concluded that the Allies did not intend to advance from their perimeter at Empress Augusta Bay or land elsewhere on the island, and began planning a counterattack. Their plans were based around a mistaken assessment that there were only 30,000 Allied personnel on the island, of whom only 20,000 were combat troops with the remainder aircraft ground crews; the American combat strength was actually over 60,000.[16][26] As a result of its experiences in the Guadalcanal Campaign during 1942 and 1943, the 17th Army decided to conduct a single major attack against the perimeter rather than a series of offensives.[27] During a visit to Bougainville on 21 January 1944, General Hitoshi Imamura, the commander of the Eighth Area Army, directed that the offensive should be launched in early March.[28] Japanese historian Hiroyuki Shindo states that this date was chosen solely based on ration availability; the Japanese supply line from Rabaul had been cut when the Allies had captured the Green Islands in mid-February and Japanese commanders wanted to attack before supplies were exhausted.[3] Preparations for the counterattack were made during the first months of 1944. As the bulk of the 17th Army was stationed in northern and southern Bougainville, engineers needed to develop roads and bridges to allow the troops to move to the hills inland from the American perimeter.[21] The combat troops chosen for the attack spent 40 days throughout January and into February conducting unit level training, perfecting jungle assault techniques.[29] All of the units selected for the offensive departed their bases by mid-February, and advanced along the eastern and western coasts. Barges moved artillery, other equipment and 1
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